This was the moment when we tore down barriers that have divided us for too long; when we rallied people of all parties and ages to a common cause; when we finally gave Americans who have never participated in politics a reason to stand up and to do so.
From Barack Obama's January 4 victory speech after the Iowa caucus.
Indeed, the Iowa caucus was the first tangible proof that something big was in the offing. So now that the dust has settled, let's take inventory.
Barack Obama soundly defeated his opponent in a well organized campaign that had nationwide appeal. He ended up winning by six and a half percentage points, which puts him in Clinton territory, but well short of Reagan. He held all the states that John Kerry won 4 years ago and managed to flip 9 other states including Florida and Ohio. In a curious sideshow, Nebraska handed Obama one of its electors -- making a historical first by splitting its electors.
Of course, the electoral college's distortion of democratic practice continues unabated, as Obama rolled up a landslide 35% margin of the electors (see table below). One wonders, if the electoral college is such a great system, why US diplomats do not advocate it abroad during the various episodes of nation-building that they are involved in.
| Year | Vote Margin (%) | Elector Margin (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 6.5 | 35 |
| 2004 | 2.4 | 6.5 |
| 2000 | -0.5 | 0.9 |
| 1996 | 8.5 | 41 |
| 1992 | 5.3 | 38 |
| 1988 | 7.8 | 59 |
| 1984 | 18 | 95 |
| 1980 | 9.7 | 82 |
Undecided
In the foregoing, I assumed that Missouri ultimately will be decided in favor of McCain. This is the only state that remains in doubt, as McCain is favored only by two tenths of a percentage point in the current tally.
More significantly there are several senate races that are still up in the air. In Minnesota, which seems to have a proclivity for obnoxious candidates, only a few Angstroms separates incumbent Norm Coleman from political satirist Al Franken. Coleman's lead is only 221 votes out of about 2.9 million cast, a difference that is less than a hundredth of a percentage point. If this margin is upheld, an automatic recount will be triggered in which Franken has the advantage due to a strong undercount reported in several predominantly Democratic districts.
Meanwhile, Georgia is serving up an interesting result of its own. In the race between incumbent Saxby Chambliss and challenger Jim Martin, Chambliss has the clear victory. But Georgia law requires a runoff election, and if Chambliss' 49.8% holds, it is headed that way. Chambliss will probably win in the runoff, but there is a lot of variability since the turnout will be very low.
Finally we come to Alaska, where the Senate's longest serving member is poised to win an 8th term. Ted Stevens, in spite of recently being convicted of 7 felony counts of corruption related charges, holds a 1% lead over his challenger. He will probably prevail in the final tally and then be forced out of the senate by his colleagues -- to be replaced by a 2-year interim senator of Governor Palin's choosing.
In my estimation then, of the three undecided senate seats, two of them will go to the Republicans. Thus the senate will be 58-42 (assuming the two independents caucus with the Democrats), which is not filibuster proof.
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3 comments:
Actually, I think the electoral college might apply rather well in Iraq, where we are building a fine, multi-billion-dollar democracy. The original intent of the college is to balance the power of the large, populous states against the voices of the small states. Perhaps Iraq could come to a compromise assigning certain proportions of the electorate to each group. Or maybe not, as T.E. Lawrence found.
Regarding Minnesota, I hope they continue, as you say, their streak of electing obnoxious candidates. Go Al!
LOL.
It is not necessary to have human electors in order to favor small states. You could just send the state's electoral votes directly to Congress -- cut out the middleman. The elector is there to intervene in the case of an emergency.
In the Federalist Papers, James Madison argued that direct popular vote is subject to the "mischiefs of faction", where a faction is "a number of citizens whether amounting to a majority or minority of the whole, who are united and actuated by some common impulse of passion, or of interest, adverse to the rights of other citizens, or to the permanent and aggregate interests of the community".
Have a look at this chart to see how small states are making out like bandits:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Pop_per_elector.png
For example, voters in Wyoming and DC are three times more powerful than voters in California and Texas. Grrrr.
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