Obamacare's unpopularity

The conventional wisdom, according to the GOP, is that Obamacare is deeply unpopular and most Americans stand with them as they valiantly fight the dragon. As evidence they cite real polls that appear convincing. Take for instance the latest poll released today by CNN in which 38% support the law while 57% oppose it. But it seems dubious, that the GOP has made such a persuasive case against the law that they have not only convinced independents but even some Democrats of the law's high-handed folly.

Indeed, we should ask why do 57% oppose? The survey did just that. It turns out that 11% of the respondents oppose Obamacare because it is not liberal enough. Presumably they would prefer a single-payer system or at least a public option. These measures were blocked outright by the GOP during the health care debate of 2009.

Perhaps it would be more accurate then to say that 49% of Americans prefer Obamacare or even stronger change in that direction. Meanwhile, when asked in this more nuanced way, only 39% stand with the GOP in saying that it goes too far and they prefer the old health care system. We can call these two categories "right direction" and "wrong direction" to make it a binary choice (ignoring the mercurial undecided). In this light, Obamacare has a stable base of support over a period of 4 years as seen in the chart below.

Bye Bye Morsi

Egypt is no Tunisia and Mohamed Morsi is no George Washington. His ouster by the military -- an orderly coup -- is surprising. Not so much that the military would make such a move, but that the Muslim Brotherhood would make such a gross miscalculation. I had assumed that they knew their own strength on the ground better than outside observers. After all, their march to power has been shrewd at every turn, but once in the hot seat, hubris seems to have won the day.

The day before, Morsi gave a defiant speech. He literally shook is fists in the air. Could he really be so stupid? He is not a stupid man. He has a PhD in materials science from USC and was once an assistant professor at Cal-State and head of the engineering department at one of Egypt's largest universities. But in the end, he appears to be incapable of compromise. People only respect strength, was his rationale.

It is disappointing. Morsi behaved like a monarch rather than a politician who seeks consensus and the formation of a governing coalition. The Muslim Brotherhood broke all their promises not to dominate Egypt's political space. Taking advantage of their superior organization and their legacy of righteous struggle against tyranny, they did just that. They rode roughshod over the young, liberal democrats of Tahrir Square and excluded them from the constitutional process.

Nobody can say that they didn't deserve this. But what now? Not only does a military take-over set a bad precedent for institution building, but the ship of state is now rudderless. Who can lead with any legitimacy? One can only hope that Egypt's military will act as a bulwark of stability, setting constraints on the rulers, but not interfering too much, as in Turkey's past. But there is a good chance that a scrap for power ensues, resulting in frequent changes of leadership and a lack of attention to and policy consistency for Egypt's economic troubles.

The Gap in Bangladesh's garment industry

Bangladesh's garment industry is on fire. But is it a blaze that lifts women from poverty or the inferno that leaves in its wake the motherless child? The truth is, it is both. And now pressure is mounting on retail companies to rein in rampant safety problems in the country's 6500 factories. This has wrought the Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh, an agreement signed by 24 retailers meant to:

"establish an independent inspectorate to oversee all factories in Bangladesh, with powers to shut down unsafe facilities as part of a legally binding contract signed by suppliers, customers and unions."

Moreover it would establish a shared financing mechanism for safety problems, designed to lower the pressure on factory owners to hide problems fearing that their partners might walk away if they knew.

The agreement was first drafted in the aftermath of the 2012 fire in the Tazreen Fashions factory. At the time, Wal-Mart, The Gap and H&M (three of the largest garment retailers in the world) refused to sign. Then the pressure reached a breaking point after the deadliest garment-accident in history at Rana Plaza. After petitions and other consumer pressure, European holdouts like H&M and Primark signed on. The Gap, which says it has ties with 78 factories, abandoned negotiations after failing to water down the legally binding nature of the agreement.

On its website, The Gap maintains that it is "one of the strongest leaders in the area of Corporate Social Responsibility". Glenn Murphy, the CEO, said they are ready to sign with "very minor accommodations".  The Gap believes that the penalty for violations should be public expulsion rather than legal action.

Many believe The Gap is the linchpin to the American retail industry, given its sheer size and greater sensitivity than companies like Wal-Mart to negative branding. Currently only two American and one Canadian company have signed the agreement as it is dominated by European companies. The Gap and Wal-Mart are now working on their own agreement, The Safer Factories Initiative, which they are touting as more appropriate for North American retailers. But it is likely to be non-binding and reversible.

The stalling and dissembling will not do. American consumers should put the heat on The Gap and its brands, which include Banana Republic and Old Navy, to do more than just talk about social responsibility. Worker safety should be pre-competitive and the industry is in need of greater transparency and accountability.  Women like Reshma, who was pulled from the wreckage after 17 days, should not have to accept mortal risk in exchange for opportunity.

Nordic Exceptionalism

For many years America was so far ahead of the rest of the world, it was not worth looking anywhere else for insight. But now the rest are catching up and there are many examples that are routinely ignored as it is un-American to look abroad for ideas. In particular the Nordic countries seem to have formulated something special. New Zealand, Canada and Australia have also been impressive. Rankings and indicators are not perfect, but are a helpful tool in assessing progress.

Freedom and Transparency

Transparency International studies levels of corruption around the world and ranks countries using the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). Each country is scored based on expert analysis and surveys aggregated from independent institutions. Finland, Denmark and New Zealand tied for the top spot in 2012 as the least corrupt. Sweden was next and Norway was not far behind. The US ranked 19th.

There are a couple of institutions that seek to quantify freedom. Reporters Without Borders focuses specifically on press freedom for journalists and netizens. They compile the Press Freedom Index based on a survey of major institutions and journalists. In 2013, the US was ranked 32nd, surprisingly behind countries like Jamaica, Ghana and Suriname. The Nordics were all in the top 10, with Finland placing 1st and Norway 3rd.
Economics

The World Economic Forum, best known for its well-attended annual summit in Davos, produces an annual report on global competitiveness, ranking countries using its Global Competitiveness Index (GCI). It is often assumed that Europe's social democracies suffer the consequences in their economic activity. But 6 of the top 10 are European in the 2012-2013 rankings. The US lands in 7th place. All the Nordics are in the top 15 and Finland and Sweden are 3rd and 4th. The Economist recently reviewed the most impressive globally competitive Nordic companies.

Denmark and Sweden had the lowest Gini coefficients, a standard measure of income inequality, as compiled in the 2010 OECD Factbook. Norway brings shame to the Nordic block with its 11th place ranking. The US ranked 27th. It has been observed that globally the gaps between nations are shrinking while the gaps within them are rising. But the rise in inequality in the US has been on a strong upward trend from 0.39 to 0.47 since 1970.

Income inequality does not tell the full story. More important is equal access to opportunity. Various studies have looked at income correlations from generation to generation or from early to later life. This is broadly termed "upward mobility" and The Economist recently summarized the research in this area. Again, we may be surprised to learn that "Parental income is a better predictor of a child's future in America than in much of Europe, implying that social mobility is less powerful."

Human Development

The latest life expectancy compilation from the UN for the period 2005-2010 ranks the US 40th with a life expectancy of 78, which is well below the OECD average. Although they are all ahead of the US, the four Nordics perform relatively poorly in this category, ranging from 8th for Sweden to 38th for Denmark. Some rare room for improvement here. Japan tops the list at 82.7.

Education is not straightforward to evaluate. In 2012 the Economist Intelligence Unit published a major study of 50 countries' education systems, scoring them by educational attainment and cognitive skills. They considered factors such as government spending on education, literacy, highschool and college graduation rates, unemployment, GDP and prison rates. Finland and South Korea top the rankings in spite of their very different approaches to education. The US was 17th, beating out Sweden and Norway, while Denmark placed 12th.

There is also the well known Human Development Index (HDI) formulated by economists Amartya Sen and Mahbub ul Haq. It is a composite measure of education, health and income. Here the US shines with a ranking of 4th in 2012. But Norway was not to be outdone, topping the chart. Sweden was 10th, Denmark 16th and Finland 22nd. When the HDI is adjusted for inequality (IHDI), the US drops to 23rd and the Nordics are all within the top 11.

Summary

Overall, we have covered 7 metrics. There are others of interest too, including happiness and crime and punishment. Sweden and the Netherlands were both in the top ten for 6 of the 7 metrics covered here. Finland and Switzerland each had 5 top ten rankings. New Zealand had 4 and Canada, Denmark, Norway and Australia had 3. The US reached the top ten just twice.